National ethnic population projections indicate New Zealand's future population for four broad and overlapping ethnic groups.
The projections indicate a 90 percent chance that New Zealand's:
- 'European or Other' population (3.31 million in 2013) will increase to 3.43–3.62 million in 2025 and to 3.43–3.82 million in 2038.
- Māori population (0.69 million in 2013) will increase to 0.83–0.91 million in 2025 and to 1.00–1.18 million in 2038.
- Asian population (0.54 million in 2013) will increase to 0.81–0.92 million in 2025 and to 1.06–1.26 million in 2038.
- Pacific population (0.34 million in 2013) will increase to 0.44–0.48 million in 2025 and to 0.54–0.65 million in 2038.
The projections also indicate:
- The Māori, Asian, and Pacific populations will continue to grow faster than New Zealand's population overall, so will increase their share of the total population.
- The number of people identifying with Asian ethnicities is likely to exceed the number identifying with the Māori ethnicity from the mid-2020s.
- All four ethnic populations will age, with increasing numbers and proportions of their populations at the older ages.
Liz MacPherson, Government Statistician
21 May 2015